Past GOOS Newsletters
GOOS AND THE BENGUELA LARGE
MARINE ECOSYSTEM:
International Workshop on Forecasting and Data Assimilation
in the Benguela and Comparable Systems
GSB Breakwater Lodge, Cape Town, 8 - 11 November 2004
Contact: vshannon@ocean.uct.ac.za
International
interest in regional ocean observing and forecasting is evident from the
strategies of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) of the Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission, the International Association for the Physical
Sciences of the Oceans (IAPSO) and other organisations. Permanent, continuously
operating real-time regional ocean prediction systems are increasingly required
to support a variety of critical activities in the ocean and coastal
environments, including fisheries management, navigation and marine operations,
response to oil and hazardous material spills, search and rescue, and prediction
of harmful algal blooms and other ecosystem or water quality phenomena.
Implementation of such systems requires advanced technologies in sensors and
observing systems, and numerical models and data assimilation, as well as the
infrastructures necessary to use them. Hydrodynamic and ecological models for
regional systems are beginning to show considerable skills. The crucial step
allowing for real-time regional forecasting is the development of oceanographic
data assimilation, which is now becoming a reality. This international thinking
is reflected in the strategy of the GEF/UNDP sponsored Benguela Current Large
Marine Ecosystem (BCLME) Programme, where a key policy action is the assessment
of environmental variability, ecosystem impacts and improvement of
predictability. Two cornerstones of this policy action are the development of an
early warning system and the improvement of predictability of extreme events and
their impacts in the BCLME.
The 2004 Benguela Forecasting Workshop, which is being sponsored by the BCLME
Programme, IAPSO, IUGG, IOC/GOOS and ICSU’s Scientific Committee for Oceanic
Research (SCOR) inter alia, will be a crucial step in the development of
a viable observing and forecasting system in support of integrated and
sustainable management of the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem, for
fast-tracking GOOS-Africa, and for implementing a key strategy of IAPSO.
Objectives
·
Assess variability in the BCLME
and ascertain which aspects are amenable to forecasting of value
·
Review present status and recent
advances in forecasting and data assimilation in the BCLME
·
Review advances in forecasting in
comparable ecosystems (e.g. Humboldt, Canary, California)
·
Specify minimum data, modelling
and human capacity requirements for an early warning system (EWS), and a
blueprint for implementation
·
Transfer expertise and technology
from leading overseas individuals and institutions to the BCLME region
·
Promote collaboration between
scientists engaged in research and operational oceanography in eastern boundary
current systems
·
Contribute to improving numerical
literacy skills of marine scientists and decision makers
·
Build human capacity in ocean
observing and forecasting through creating awareness of needs and opportunities
·
Improve and further develop
linkages and networking amongst scientists and managers in the BCLME countries,
internationally, and between the BCLME Programme and international and
intergovernmental agencies
·
Contribute to BCLME management by
improving assessment of variability and developing a forecasting capability
Scope
The Workshop will address a broad range of subjects (ocean
and atmosphere physics, chemistry, biology and resource-related) of importance
for the development of a predictive capability for the greater Benguela Current
region and comparable systems. Topics of
relevance to forecasting on time scales ranging from hours to months, and
possibly even years and decades, will be addressed inter alia:
- Wind forcing: the South-East Atlantic as a coupled
ocean-atmosphere system
- Modes of ocean-atmosphere variability in the South
Atlantic which impact on the shelf system
- Variability of the Angola (Cabinda) Front, Angola
Current and Angola Dome
- Variability of the Angola-Benguela Front and
implications thereof
- Benguela Niños and other events of tropical origin
- Frontal variability and generation of upwelling
filaments
- Variability and alongshore and cross-shelf process
associated with the principal upwelling cell (Lüderitz cell): impacts and
predictability
- Intrusions (filaments, rings etc) of the Agulhas
Current
- Intrusions of Sub-Antarctic water into the Benguela
- Wind and waves and impacts on marine structures and
maritime operations
- Generation and advection of hypoxia/anoxia
- Development and advection of harmful algal blooms,
and their predictability
- Advection and dispersal of pollutants
- Sulphur “eruptions”: predictability and impacts
- Modelling food chain dynamics, including regime
shifts
- Environmental impacts on fish resources
- Environmental constraints on the distribution of
fish vis-a-vis modelling and forecasting
- Impacts of environmental variability on the
ecosystem on inter-annual and decadal time scales
- Developments in observing and forecasting in
comparable systems (Humboldt, Canary and California Current etc)
- Models and the data requirements
- Ocean observing system appropriate for the BCLME
region
- Key elements of an early warning system for the
BCLME: Development of a sub-regional component of GOOS-Africa
Workshop
Outputs
- Comprehensive assessment of environmental and
resource variability in the Benguela and comparable systems and of latest
developments and applications of modelling and data assimilation
- Evaluation of those aspects of variability which are
amenable to forecasting of value
- Specification of minimum data, modelling and human
capacity requirements for a viable early warning system, and its
implementation
- Technology transfer and capacity building
- Establishment of closer links (and possible future
partnerships) between the BCLME Programme and international and
intergovernmental organisations
- Definitive peer-reviewed book and CD/DVD on
observing systems and forecasting in the BCLME. (The provisional title of
the book is “Development of a predictive capability for environmental and
resource variability in the Benguela and comparable systems”)
Participation
The Workshop is aimed at
quantitative scientists, engineers, economists and resource experts and
managers. It will be a focussed high level meeting limited to a maximum of 80
persons with the requisite skills. Of these 60 will be by specific invitation,
while 20 places will be reserved for non-invited experts
Scientific Programme
Committee (SPC)
The overall planning and
organisation of the scientific programme for the Workshop is being undertaken by
the SPC, which has the following membership:
Vere Shannon (South Africa
– SPC Chair)
Geoff Brundrit (South Africa)
Erlich Desa (India)
Wolfgang Fennel (Germany)
Pierre Freon (France)
Johannes Guddal (Norway)
Dale Haidvogel (USA)
Hashali Hamukuaya (Namibia)
Kwame Koranteng (Ghana)
Mark Majodina (South Africa)
Coleen Moloney (South Africa)
Paola Rizzoli (USA)
Claude Roy (France)
Frank Shillington (South Africa)
John Woods (United Kingdom)
Local Organising Committee
(LOC)
The LOC is responsible for all
local and regional arrangements for the Workshop and will interact closely with
the SPC. It is chaired by Lesley Staegemann (Director of the BCLME Programme’s
Environmental Variability Activity Centre) and has a membership drawn from the
main participating institutes in Angola, Namibia and South Africa.
Language
The official
language of the Workshop will be English
Contact Details
The BCLME Programme’s Environmental Variability Activity
Centre (EVAC) will facilitate all arrangements for the Workshop. For more
information contact Director: EVAC, bclmeevg@deat.gov.za
(Tel +27 21 4023418/9).
