7. ELEMENTS
7.1 A GLOBAL COASTAL NETWORK (Thompson)
During the course of the meeting it became apparent that an effective design strategy for C-GOOS would be the parallel development of regional and global scale components. The global C-GOOS network would be based on a minimal set of core measurements much as described in section 6.2, a concept that is also consistent with the approach used by the OOPC. This will not only provide a global framework for national and regional scale GOOS programmes, it will provide the global scale perspective of environmental changes in coastal waters required to distinguish between local changes that are related to local effects and local changes that are related to regional and global effects.
Initial discussion focussed on the following elements:
  1. a "GLOSS-plus" array, because sea-level is a great integrator;
  2. an array of meteorological buoys enhanced with in situ oceanographic sensors to improve marine meteorological forecasts and coastal circulation models;
  3. a linkage to the open ocean observing system to supply boundary conditions for coastal models;
  4. measuring flows through critical straits, for instance from instrumented ferries; and
  5. satellite imagery (e.g., RADARSAT, SeaWiFS, AVHRR).
Vincent et al. (1993) provide a starting point for planning the sampling design for in situ measurements. Selection of station locations and environmental variables to be measured will be determined through an objective assessment and numerical analyses that will consider the distribution of people in the coastal zone, the susceptibility of coastal environments to natural hazards, and sampling requirements for (i) improving weather forecasts, predictions of natural hazards, and climatology; and (ii) a sufficient number of cross-shelf transects ("corridors") to capture changes in coastal waters caused by point and nonpoint discharges from coastal watersheds, fishing, and larger scale oceanic and climate variability. Corridors will be located where measurements will reveal the health and regional trends of the coastal ocean, i.e., sites that are influenced by riverine discharge which integrate the effects of human activities in coastal watersheds, support major fisheries, or are sensitive to larger scale oceanic and climatic variability.
In regard to satellite imagery, problems related to the mismatch between the time scales of coastal processes (hourly, semi-diurnal, daily) and the long orbital repeat time of satellites can be serious problem in terms of the ability to capture time-dependent changes in property fields. This problem will be at least partially solved through the use of geostationary satellites. This potential significance of this capability to C-GOOS will be communicated by the GSO to the space agencies via GOSSP (Global Observing Systems Space Panel).
7.2 POTENTIAL PILOT PROJECTS
Each of the pilot projects described below are preliminary. They were presented for discussion at the panel meeting and will be fully developed (using the format given in section 8.1) during the intersessional period for presentation at C-GOOS-III where priority projects will be identified for inclusion in the design strategy for C-GOOS.
7.2.1 Eastern South Pacific (Ulloa)
The intra-annual behaviour of the coastal seas on the western seaboard of South America is dominated by remote forcing from the equatorial Pacific (including but not limited to ENSO events). As a result, local conditions cannot be predicted based on local measurements alone. With better data it should be possible to develop accurate 2-month forecasts of changes in, for example, coastal currents.
The project requires the following elements:
  1. data from the TAO moorings in the equatorial Pacific;
  2. four meteorological/oceanographic (Met-ocean) buoys along the coast;
  3. seven digitally recording tide gauges with GPS;
  4. remote-sensing by ENVISAT (which is not working right now);
  5. 3-D, time-dependent circulation model;
  6. topography.
If successful, the project will lead to hourly predictions of currents on the shelf and in bays and harbours. It should be of interest to a wide range of users, including environment agencies, harbour authorities, coastal managers, and industry. It would serve two main C-GOOS operational categories: preserving healthy coasts and safe and efficient marine operations. It would address several C-GOOS issues, among others: toxic contamination, nutrient over-enrichment, and spills of hazardous materials. Given the importance of climate and air-sea interactions, this is a candidate for a joint project with the OOPC.
The technology is essentially available, given appropriate funding. The problem in initiating the project is the politics: how do we get Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Chile to collaborate? And who will decide which scientists get together to do the work? Clearly the users have to be involved as early as possible, and there is already a lot of local interest, tempered with apprehension about the main political angles, which include: (i) setting up a joint project (finding the people and the resources to implement the system, maintain it, do the modelling and produce and disseminate the output), and (ii) sharing the data.
In discussion, the Panel agreed that overcoming political obstacles was one of the useful roles for the sponsoring organisations and recommended that this question be taken through the GSC, to I-GOOS-IV and thence to the IOC Assembly. Similarly the question could be addressed by UNEP, through its Regional Seas programme, and by the WMO. It should be noted that for more than 12 years, WMO and IOC have been trying to get approval for a sizeable project to establish an observational network along the margin of the southeastern Pacific. Fernando Guzman, of the Ocean Affairs Division of the WWW, has been working on the design of a Humboldt Current project, which could cover C-GOOS interests along with others. A joint IOC-WMO workshop on the topic of observing the southeastern margin of the Pacific might prove a useful platform for promoting the C-GOOS pilot project. It would also be useful to create a network of the marine laboratories that have an interest in taking such a project forward. It was agreed that the GPO should work to exploit the intergovernmental machinery to encourage Member States to co- operate.
7.2.2 Remote Sensing: Algorithm Development For Coastal Waters (Sinjae Yoo)
The goal of this proposed project is to develop a global network of laboratories that supply the in situ data needed to parameterise optical properties of coastal waters as the basis for developing regional algorithms for use in reflectance models applied to remotely sensed ocean colour data. The project will facilitate eventual operational use of remotely sensed ocean colour data in coastal seas.
The key problem in the interpretation of remotely sensed images of ocean colour is to differentiate between what is caused by phytoplankton and what is caused by suspended sediments and dissolved organic matter. Surface waters are typically divided into two categories: (i) case 1 waters, where phytoplankton is the major independent variable controlling colour, and where there is a useful algorithm for determining chlorophyll, hence phytoplankton, from colour; and (ii) case 2 waters, where there are several sources of the colour and the development and validation of algorithms is more difficult.
Through the use of an appropriately parametrised reflectance model, it should be possible to extract information on the concentrations of (i) coloured dissolved organic matter; (ii) chlorophyll; (iii) total suspended matter; and (iv) suspended solids. However, the optical properties of these materials vary from location to location, and site-specific algorithms must be developed to account for the unique optical characteristics of the materials found in each region. Hence the need for in situ measurements of optical spectra. The spectral measurements needed for the construction of appropriate algorithms include profiles of (i) downwelling and (ii) upwelling radiance spectra; (iii) the absorption of particles collected on filters; (iv) absorption by pigments; (v) absorption by the dissolved organic matter; and (vi) backscattering by particles.
The first step is to establish standard protocols for these measurements. The laboratories participating in the project will work together to derive, test and document an appropriate set of protocols, preferably ones that can be implemented simply and cheaply in many parts of the world. In the process, workshops will be needed to bring people together to compare the results of different studies. Once protocols have been established, scientists and technicians will have to be trained in making and applying the measurements.
It is proposed to initiate the development of the network, and to demonstrate the usefulness of in situ data for constructing site specific algorithms for coastal regions, by focussing initially on two regions: (i) the Yellow and East China Sea, and (ii) Chesapeake Bay. Once the approach has been developed and tested it can be applied not only to processing new ocean colour data from satellites, but also to the re- interpretation of the archives of data from the Coastal Zone Colour Scanner system (CZCS) and the ADEOS satellite.
In discussion it became apparent that algorithm development for Case 2 coastal waters is currently an important research focus of several laboratories and a solution seems likely within the next 2 years. Some panel members questioned the wisdom of promoting this work when it was already the subject of active research in several places. Others noted that the greatest wealth of coastal data was likely to come from satellite remote sensing, and that C-GOOS should assist in promoting it if that meant speedier establishment of a coastal observing system.

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7.2.3 Harmful Algal Blooms (Zingone)
Indo-Pacific Pilot Project
To help to protect human health and food resources, research into the causes of HABs is now underway, as are some monitoring programmes for detecting harmful species or toxic seafood. Most of the monitoring programmes do not include observations of the environmental parameters associated with HABs, and most of the research focuses on specific biological aspects or on technology (e.g., detection capability). However, monitoring efforts are fragmented (lack continuity in space or time) and, with the important exception of recent research programmes (e.g., EcoHAB in the U.S. and the proposed GEOHAB programme of IGBP), few are multidisciplinary. Consequently, prediction of HABs and their effects is not possible at this time.
To enable successful prediction of the timing, magnitude and location of HABs, there is an urgent need to collect data about the key environmental variables associated with HABs, and to collect data over long periods to detect recurrent patterns and trends. In addition, comparative monitoring of different systems with full and free exchange of data among laboratories will improve knowledge, understanding and prediction of HABs.
A network of monitoring systems for Pyrodinium bahamense blooms in the Indo-Pacific region (Philippines to Indonesia) is proposed. This dinoflagellate species causes Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning (PSP) and is the dominant HAB species in the region. For example, serious outbreaks of PSP associated with this species have occurred in Manila Bay causing well over 100 deaths in the past 15 years and economic losses that reached $300,000/day for two months in 1988. The pilot project will address the following the questions:
  1. is there a recurrent pattern of phytoplankton succession in those locations where P. bahamense booms frequently?
  2. under what environmental conditions does this species bloom and become toxic and what are the controlling environmental factors?
  3. what is the role of resting cysts in the dynamics of the blooms?
  4. is the spreading of these blooms related to weather or climate patterns?
  5. what causes the blooms to decline?
It is proposed that measurements be made in Manila Bay and Samar Bay in the Philippines, in Jakarta Bay, in Sabah, and in Brunei Darussalam, where blooms of P.bahamense have been recorded often and where there has been periodic sampling by local laboratories. Other sites meriting consideration are Kao Bay (North Moluccas), Papua New Guinea, and Hong Kong Bay. Data required include (i) species composition of phytoplankton communities; (ii) tides, currents and meteorological conditions; (iii) in situ cyst production and germination and the history of cyst deposition; (iv) water temperature and salinity; and (v) the concentrations of phytoplankton pigments, dissolved inorganic nutrients, dissolved organic nutrients, humic acid, and dissolved oxygen. Consideration will have to be given to the development of appropriate forecasting models, calling for instance on the state-of-the-art coupled circulation-ecosystem models being developed for plankton studies in other areas (eg the North Sea) or on Artificial Neural Networks.
PhytoNet
There is a growing concern that HABs may be increasing in frequency and occurrence worldwide. These apparent increases have been attributed by some to human activities related to nutrient enrichment of coastal waters and shipping which may spread seed populations through the transport and discharge of ballast water. The increases are labelled 'apparent' because coastal waters have been undersampled in both time and space and perceived increases may reflect increasing in sampling intensity. There is no doubt that HABs are a serious constraint to the increasing efforts of man to exploit the marine environment.
To meet the C-GOOS challenges of preserving healthy coasts and mitigating natural disasters, the frequency, magnitude and spatial distribution of HABs must be quantified on a global scale. The first step C-GOOS is to encourage the design and effective exploitation of HAB databases and to develop a network of laboratories for the timely dissemination of data on the occurrence of HABs and their effects, PhytoNet. The network should begin at the regional scale involving laboratories with sufficient data and resources required for a high probability of success, e.g., Europe. The main goals would be to insure that the data base on HABs is complete and kept current through the systematic document of the distributions of HAB species in the context of the species compostion of the plankton community in general and to evaluate changes in species composition in terms of their effects on the trophic dynamics of coastal ecosystems.
This will require (i) locating appropriate laboratories, monitoring agencies and databases; (ii) establishing a network between them; (iii) organizing the available data into structured, user-friendly databases (perhaps through an International Data Centre); (iv) establishing an information structure, with links to agencies concerned with human health, fisheries and coastal management; and (v) establishing linkages with scientific programmes (local, regional, and global).

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7.2.4 Natural Disasters (Walker)
Forecasting storm surges in the northern Indian Ocean is the focus of this project. In this area, especially on the highly populated low lying coast of Bangladesh, storm surges lead to severe loss of life, killing up to 200-300,000 people during a single event. Storm surge modelling is well developed around the coasts of Europe, where massive investments have been made in coastal protection (e.g. the Thames Barrier in London, the activity of which is controlled in response to storm surge modelling). There is a need for comparable development of advanced predictive models for the northern Indian Ocean region. This will require major enhancements of the existing Indian Ocean network of monitoring sites.
This need has been recognized by the WMO and the IOC, and the IOC Executive Council at its November 1998 meeting will consider a proposal entitled "Project Proposal on Storm Surges for the Northern Part of the Indian Ocean", written by a Group of Experts convened by the IOC, WMO and UNESCO's International Hydrological Programme (IHP). The proposal has already been discussed and approved by the Intergovernmental Council of the IHP and by the WMO Executive Council. The proposal is extensive and comprehensive. It covers the same territory addressed by the C-GOOS work group, but is very expensive with a the total budget of $30 million.
Observing and modelling storms and associated surges requires an observing system that has the capability of (i) tracking the size and intensity of storms in real time; (ii) providing data on sea-level, waves and currents in real time; and (iii) forecasting the areal extent and depth of flooding based on topography, land type and cover, and runoff patterns. In light of these requirements, the Panel expressed some concerns about the IOC-WMO-IHP proposal, as follows:

Recognizing that the establishment of a regional storm surge forecasting system is important for the preservation of life and property in the northern Indian Ocean;

Noting with interest the development by the IOC, WMO and the IHP of a storm surge proposal for the northern Indian ocean;

Finding that this proposal is wholly consistent with the overall aims of the draft proposal presented to the Coastal Module Panel of GOOS for such a system;

Notes with concern that the IOC-WMO-IHP proposal seems to lack an inundation model for flooding prediction; and

Asks how the IOC-WMO-IHP proposal meshes with the interests of the national agencies in the region.

Asks further how capacity will be built in the region by the implementation of this proposal, given that the proposal seems to indicate that the work will be done by consultants; and

Asks further whether the equipment used will be left behind at the conclusion of the project, and whether the local population will have been trained by the project operators to operate and maintain the equipment and interpret the results in terms of forecasts.

The Panel recommends that the concerns raised be addressed by the proposers and the C-GOOS experts together and confirms that if these concerns are addressed in a satisfactory manner, the proposed IOC-WMO-IHP project could be adopted as a pilot project of the Coastal Module of GOOS.

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7.2.5 Networking Metadata (Walker)
A vital aspect of C-GOOS services for users is the ability to readily access the wide range of data required to support analysis, decision making and predictive systems. Data gathering activities are widely dispersed in space, time and application area. In addition, the coastal zone is affected by inputs from land, sea, and air. Thus, any application in the coastal zone is likely to need data from a wide range of sources. Some applications will require real-time or near real-time inputs.
Several coordinated international efforts already exist for storing and disseminating environmental data. Examples of current international efforts include (i) World Weather Watch (WWW), (ii) Permanent Service for Mean Sea-Level (PSMSL), (iii) Global Sea-Level Observing System (GLOSS), (iv) World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) Data Centres, and (v) National Oceanographic Data Centres (NODCs) of IODE. These and other such systems are potentially valuable resources that should be considered in the design of C-GOOS. However, except for meteorology, many existing data networks are not designed for near real-time data access and some are highly specialised covering a narrow rage of disciplines or applications.
At present data management activities are often confined to the development of meta-databases, of which there are many quite comprehensive ones. The design and implementation plans for C-GOOS must address the following: (i) establishing standard formulas for data archives of 'standard' variables, (ii) developing common interfaces for sharing data between institutions, agencies and nations, (iii) demonstrating the ability to update data bases on line in a timely fashion (preferably automatically), (iv) demonstrating the ability to rapidly assimilate and analyze data on line, and (v) addressing issues of ownership and access to data especially as data become valuable. Much has been accomplished in these areas, and C-GOOS will need to build this and to adapt existing systems to particular needs in the coastal zone. This challenge will be considered under the heading of data and information management at C- GOOS-III.
7.2.6 HOTO Projects (Knapp)
The Black Sea
The HOTO Panel considers the Black Sea a high priority for GOOS due to the severity of its environmental problems. Anthropogenic forcings are extensive (inputs of oil, nutrients, pesticides and synthetic organic chemicals); the Sea is highly eutrophic; HABs are common; the food-web has been severely altered; and fisheries have declined to the point where only 6 out of 26 formerly commercially valuable species remain economically viable.
The many programmes that have been created to help understand the processes underlying the problems include (i) the Black Sea Environmental Programme, established in 1993, led to the Black Sea Strategic Action Plan; (ii) the Danube Delta project; (iii) the Co-operative Marine Science Programme for the Black Sea (CoMSBlack); (iv) the NATO TU Black Sea Project; (vi) the EROS-2000 Programme of the EU, (vii) the Black Sea regional programme established in 1995 by the IOC; and the coordinated tracer programme of the IAEA.
The proposed HOTO pilot project has two main areas for monitoring: (i) biogeochemical-ecosystem measurements for ecosystem processes, biodiversity, habitat loss, endangered and threatened species, and changes in community structure; and (ii) human health-related problems created by consumption of contaminated seafood or direct contact with contaminants ranging from the HOTO variables of organics and metals to naturally occurring toxins and pathogens derived from sewage and natural processes. Properties to be measured were prioritorized as follows:

High - algal toxins, herbicides/pesticides, phytoplankton pigments and community structure, nutrients, dissolved oxygen and petroleum compounds;

Medium - artificial radionuclides, litter and plastics, synthetic organics, poly-aromatic hydrocarbons, trace metals, and suspended organics;

Low - pharmaceuticals and human pathogens.

Since the HOTO meeting (October 1997) more data have emerged. First are the results of a set of workshops designed to investigate the feasibility of starting a Mussel Watch programme in the area. As well as investigating the body burden of contaminants in the mussel, it has been suggested that biological health measurements be made on mussels as proxy measures of ecosystem health. The use of biomarkers as proxy indicators of ecosystem health has been proposed by HOTO and GIPME. They would be relatively easy to measure in mussels in a region like this, and would provide useful information where chemical data are lacking. HOTO would like to start a training programme for these parameters in the Black Sea as part of a HOTO Pilot Project that could later be expanded to other regions.
Finally, a meeting of observational scientists and modellers (October 1998) concluded that:
  1. Major efforts are needed to understand and predict the pathways, regulation, feedbacks and roles of physical, climatic and anthropogenic factors in driving population dynamics and variability in Black Sea ecosystems;
  2. the tools required are inter-disciplinary models, continuous observations, and process studies, performed with sufficient detail to take account of the existing physical, biogeochemical interactions in the strongly coupled oxic, suboxic and anoxic layers of the basin;
  3. an operational data management system is needed to assist the observation and modelling efforts;
  4. stations should regularly (e.g., at 2 week intervals) sampled along transects from the coast into the basin using small vessels off Bosphorus, Sinop, Batumi, Glenjik, Odessa, Consantza and Varna;
  5. core measurements would be like those of the JGOFS time series station off Bermuda, including nutrients, oxygen, hydrogen sulphide, phytoplankton biomass, zooplankton biomass, chlorophyll-a, salinity and temperature, supplemented by selected variables including some biological effects and contaminants so as to further the work on the use of biological health indicators;
  6. a resolution should be drafted at the next meeting of the IOC Black Sea regional Committee (November 1998) to the launch a Black Sea GOOS programme in 1999. This would include the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding accepting the time series approach as a pilot project of Black Sea GOOS.
The HOTO pilot project should become an integral part of this effort.
Western Caribbean
For the past 8 years GIPME has been trying to obtain funding for a project to measure contaminant residue levels along with biological effects in tropical areas. Their focus is on the Atlantic coast of central America where the production of large quantities of bananas has led to excessive use of fungicides and pesticides to protect the crops. Because these phosphate-based compounds are non-persistent and degrade rapidly they are applied continually and enter the coastal system directly. GIPME now plans to conduct a workshop in the area during 1999 to provide protocols for the use of bioassays and chemical techniques to assess potential damage to marine ecosystems in tropical areas.
Funds have been obtained to hold the workshop in 1999 (probably in Costa Rica). This provides an opportunity for a HOTO pilot project to study an important environmental question with implications for human health and sustainable development. The aim is to use this Meso-American Reef project as a representative example for the region, and to supply adequate training so that when the project is complete there will be sufficient local expertise to continue assessing the effects of man's activities on tropical ecosystems. Whether or not this GIPME-led initiative becomes a HOTO pilot project will be discussed at a GIPME/HOTO meeting in December 1998. It could become a joint C-GOOS/HOTO pilot project.

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7.2.7 Adriatic Sea (Malone)
7.2.7.1 Introduction
The Adriatic Sea is a semi-enclosed body of water with densely populated coastal watersheds. Surrounding States belong to the industrially developed and developing world with established or growing economies. The region is characterized by intensive land-based and sea-based activities including expanding tourism, a vibrant fishing industry, and multinational economic trade. The success of these industries depends on a healthy marine ecosystem.
Nutrient enrichment is suspected of causing profound changes in the health of the northern Adriatic Sea. Mucilage events, oxygen depletion of bottom water and harmful algal blooms may be indicators of eutrophication. Nutrient enrichment may also be a factor in the "successful" invasion of nonindigenous species and in habitat loss. Furthermore, the effects of nutrient enrichment can be exacerbated by overfishing. Episodic meteorological events and longer term climate change compound the environmental effects of human activities on local to regional scales. In addition to their profound effects on the habitats, biodiversity and productivity of coastal ecosystems, environmental changes such as these will make coastal ecosystems more susceptible to natural hazards, more costly to live in, and of less value to the national economy.
A major scientific challenge arising from human activities in the coastal zone is the development of a predictive understanding of the relationships between land-use practices in coastal drainage basins (population growth, agriculture, urbanization, deforestation, etc.) and changes in the water quality and living resources of their receiving waters (bays, estuaries, coastal seas). The northern Adriatic (NA), like many coastal aquatic systems, has been subjected to increases in nitrogen and phosphorus inputs that reflect changes in land-use patterns as human population densities in coastal watersheds (catchment areas, drainage basins) have increased. In addition to point sources (e.g., sewage outfalls), diffuse inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus from the Po River and other river systems are of particular concern.
In terms of the effects of nutrient enrichment, it is very important to note that approximately half of nutrient load to the northern Adriatic enters the system in the northern reaches of the system (north of the Po River discharge), including rivers discharging into the Gulf of Trieste. In contrast to nutrients delivered by the Po River which have a short residence time in the northern Adriatic, these nutrients are likely to be retained and recycled within the northern Adriatic before being lost to the atmosphere (denitrification), buried in the sediments (N, P, and Si), or transported into the southern reaches of the Adriatic (N, P and Si). Thus, the effects of these inputs (north of the Po) on eutrophication in the northern Adriatic may be much greater than for nutrients delivered by the Po.
7.2.7.2 Goals
This pilot project is conceived as one research component of the proposed Coordinated Adriatic Observing System (CAOS). It will address the following related questions:
  1. Do historical data bases and sediment records reveal past trends that can be related to anthropogenic activities and aid in the design of CAOS?
  2. How does the NA respond to nutrient loading (nitrogen, phosphorus and silicon) in terms of variations in primary productivity and biomass, community structure (microbes to fish), nutrient cycling, trophic interactions, and the population dynamics of gelatinous zooplankton and fish?
  3. How are changes in ecosystem dynamics (question #2) related to the development and magnitude of mucilage events, oxygen depletion, harmful algal blooms, and mass mortalities of macrobenthic and pelagic organisms (indicators of ecosystem health)?
  4. What are the causal linkages and quantitative relationships between variations in nutrient input and indicators of ecosystem health?
  5. How do changes in ecosystem health impact on the economies of the surrounding States in terms of fisheries (including mariculture), shipping and tourism?
The development of meaningful answers to these questions will require a monitoring network that includes the entire Adriatic Sea (high resolution) as well as the Mediterranean Sea as a whole (lower resolution); research programmes that employ both observation, experiments and modeling to determine the causes and effects of environmental phenomena revealed by the monitoring network; and knowledge of the physical setting. The large scale problem of the Mediterranean Sea is being addressed by the Mediterranean Forecasting System (a joint EuroGOOS-MedGOOS project funded by the EC) which will provide the information required to understand local changes within the Adriatic in the context of changes occurring on the larger scale of the Mediterranean Sea (a nested, hierarchical approach). The physical setting of the Adriatic Sea as a whole is of fundamental importance to the development of meaningful answers to the environmental questions posed above. A quantitative understanding of the mean circulation, deviations from the mean (especially lateral west-east transport and advective exchanges between the shallow northern region and the deeper southern region), and of the processes responsible for these deviations will be required. Major forcings (e.g., river flows, wind stress, solar radiation, atmospheric deposition, tides) must be monitored on a regular basis. This, and the monitoring of changes in water quality parameters (e.g., nutrient concentrations, primary productivity, grazing rates) and indices (e.g., dissolved oxygen, turbidity, mucilage, HAB species, mass mortalities of macrobenthic organisms and fish) are key components of the proposed Coordinated Adriatic Observing System (CAOS). In this context, a research programme to answer questions related to the effects of nutrient enrichment on the nutrient and trophic dynamics of the northern Adriatic will soon be proposed as a major research component of the CAOS.

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7.2.7.3 Background
The genesis of the proposed pilot project began in 1995 with a workshop sponsored by Croatia, Slovenia and the U.S. and attended by scientists from Austria, Croatia, Slovenia, Italy and the United States (Malone et al., 1996). The workshop stimulated a collaboration between the scientists who participated in the workshop that led to the publication of "Ecosystems at the Land-Sea Margin: Drainage Basin to Coastal Sea" (Malone et al., 1998). The workshop was a forum for the comparative analysis of nutrient loadings, transport pathways, nutrient cycling, trophic levels, water quality and fisheries of the Chesapeake Bay (CB) and the northern Adriatic Sea (NA). The analysis illustrated the importance of research and monitoring as a means for developing the information base needed to formulate and implement a comprehensive strategy for coordinated management of land-use practices, water quality and fisheries.
Attempts to compare and contrast the current status of the NA and CB were plagued by the problem of undersampling at all levels from the quantification of inputs to the ecological processes responsible for changes in water quality and fisheries. This was found to be especially true of the NA where the need for coordinated and interactive research and monitoring programmes to assess and forecast the effects of land-use practices on water quality and fisheries is especially acute. A few examples are given here to illustrate this point.
  1. Assessment and management of the effects of nutrient inputs on water quality and living resources require both the formulation of annual nutrient budgets that quantify sources and sinks and the elucidation of the causal relationships that govern the relationships between sources and sinks (the ecological linkages). At present, budgets for nitrogen, phosphorus and silicon of the NA cannot be done with known levels of statistical confidence primarily because important sources have not been quantified with sufficient resolution or over sufficient periods of time (e.g., riverine inputs, ground water discharge, and atmospheric deposition); advective exchanges with the greater Adriatic Sea to the south and lateral (west-east) circulations are not well understood; and the effects of sedimentation and benthic-pelagic coupling on internal storage of nutrients and the effects of fisheries and fish migrations on nutrient inputs and exports are unknown.
  2. In terms of the responses to nutrient enrichment, the lack of data from the plume of the Po River and the apparent patchiness of ecosystem level expressions of nutrient enrichment (e.g., oxygen depletion, HABs, mucilage production) in the NA are major problems. Estimates of phytoplankton productivity of the NA as a whole are uncertain, largely because of undersampling in both time and space (vertically and horizontally). In addition, there are few measurements of benthic microalgal production even though it is likely to be a significant source of organic matter within the NA. The Po River is the largest single source of land-derived nutrients and phytoplankton production in its plume is a major source of organic matter to the NA, yet the production associated with the plume and the fate of this production in neither well quantified or understood. Understanding the fate of riverine nutrient inputs and associated phytoplankton production within the NA is key to understanding and quantifying the linkages between nutrient inputs, hypoxic events, "mare sporco", harmful algal blooms, and changes in fish stocks. Knowledge of how the Po River outflow interacts with patterns of circulation on a range of scales (from microscale turbulence to mesoscale eddies) under different forcing regimes is of fundamental importance.
  3. Despite repeated massive outbreaks of jellyfish, their public health risks, their impact on tourism, and their potential effects on fisheries, there has been no systematic study of the abundance and distribution of gelatinous zooplankton in the Adriatic. There are good reasons to suspect causal linkages between nutrient enrichment, overfishing and the frequency and magnitude of jellyfish outbreaks. However, an objective evaluation of these possibilities cannot be made due to the lack of long-term data on their abundance and distribution in the context of variations and trends in nutrient loading and the population dynamics of fish and shellfish prevents.
  4. Finally, the challenges to fisheries management in the Adriatic are similar to those of most exploited coastal ecosystems. In addition to better measures of fishing effort, there is an immediate need for more systematic and frequent stock assessments performed in the context of observation programmes that quantify variations in key environmental variables and the abundances of prey and predators. Traditional fisheries management approaches may suffice in the short-term, but adaptive, multispecies management to protect and restore water quality and habitat (especially habitats for breeding and early development, e.g., sea grasses, lagoons) are the keys to sustainable fisheries.
The results of the 1995 workshop laid the foundations for a workshop on the "Coordinated Adriatic Observing System" (CAOS) which was co-sponsored by the Italian National Research Council, the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Croatian Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Slovenian Ministry of Science and Technology (21-22 October, 1998, Trieste, Italy). The goal is to design an observation system to address (i) environmental problems in the NA (land-based sources of pollution; human and ecosystem health; biodiversity of coastal areas); (ii) larger scale issues (susceptibility to natural hazards such as storm surges, influence of climate change; eutrophication of the Adriatic as a whole, mucilage events, outbreaks of jellyfish); and (iii) fishing and biodiversity (habitat loss; declines in commercial fisheries; conservation and biodiversity).
The 1995 workshop has also led to the organization of a second workshop on "Nutrient and Trophic Dynamics in the Northern Adriatic Sea and Their Impact on Fish Production" (9-16 May, 1999, Rovinj, Croatia). The workshop will build on the experience, contacts and outcomes of the 1995 workshop and the 1998 CAOS workshop. The proposed research programme is expected to be an integral part of CAOS in that it will provide much of the scientific basis for the monitoring component. It will focus on the fundamental research questions identified in the 1995 workshop and will set priorities for future research and monitoring as related to nutrient cycling and production dynamics in the northern Adriatic Sea. The primary objectives are:
  1. Refine fundamental research questions and identify specific information gaps, technological needs and priorities for future research and monitoring on the interactions of nutrient cycling, trophic interactions and fish production that will be critical for effective management and planning in the region.

    Build on the experiences, contacts and outcomes from the 1995 workshop to provide a mechanism for scientific interaction and exchange on environmental issues in the northern Adriatic Sea.

  2. Recommend ways to effect coordinated, cost-effective research, monitoring and data management (quality control, archival and dissemination) in the northern Adriatic.
  3. Evaluate the feasibility and advantages of including the northern Adriatic region in other international programmes such as the International Coastal Global Ocean Observing System (C- GOOS), the International Long-Term Ecological Research Programme (I-LTER), and GLOBEC.
  4. Produce an integrated work plan (and information brochure for the public) which can help direct funding efforts in the region. This will be a distinct, articulated methodological report that details, in modular form, specific research and monitoring activities that are responsive to the needs of end user groups.
  5. Initiate a training process (including scientific exchange) that will add new disciplinary expertise to the region and ensure a sustainable programme to follow up on workshop recommendations.
The workshop will provide a forum in which leading scientists will define how we can best monitor and research key factors in nutrient inputs, trophic dynamic fisheries, and patterns of nutrient recycling and physical forcing factors. A central issue is the "paradox of nutrient enrichment." In contrast to global scale comparisons that show positive correlations between nutrient input and fish production, nutrient enrichment is often associated with loss of habitat, bottom water hypoxia, increases in HABs, gelatinous zooplankton outbreaks, fish kills, and declines in tourism and marketable seafood products. Many of these problems have been observed in the NA, including mucilage events and changes in the structure of food webs that support commercial fisheries.

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7.2.7.4 Pilot Project Design
It was recognized that there is a need to link bottom-up (measurements) and top-down (user needs) perspectives (the end-to-end, user driven approach of GOOS). The following is a first cut at using the C-GOOS design process to address one issue, the problem of oxygen depletion in bottom waters of the northern Adriatic. It is intended to be a starting point for discussion that will stimulate debate and lead to a more systematic and comprehensive pilot project design.
Pilot Project Design Table for Hypoxia/Anoxia.
Prediction Lead Time Model Type Model(1) Inputs Model Outputs
extent of hypoxia in time-space near real-time to annual mass balance, numerical riverine & atmospheric freshwater & nutrients, wind stress, currents, tides, T-S, PAR, Chl fields of flow, Chl & dissolved oxygen
Analysis of Input Variables: variable to be measured (model inputs), scales of measurement (required resolution in time and space of measurements, areal coverage and temporal duration of measurements; f - frequency, d - duration, ar - aerial resolution), a ranking of each variable in terms of its importance to the modeling effort (impact), the feasibility of measuring each variable, and availability of proven techniques and technologies. The duration is muli-year in each case.
Variable Scales Rank Feasibility Technology
Qf, Nutrient flux f: daily high high flow meter, nutrient concentration
Atm deposition, Nutrient flux f: daily over water
ar: 10 sites		 high moderate wet and dry deposition, nutrient concentration
Winds f: hourly, surface over water,
ar: 10 sites		 high high anemometer, satallite scatterometer (ADEOS)
Tides f: hourly
ar: 5 sites		 high high tide gauges
PAR f: surface continuous; vertical profiles monthly
ar: 10 sites		 high high moored instrument; spectral radiometer
T, S f: hourly vertical profiles
ar: 10 sites; monthly aerial distribution		 high good moored instruments, 3-5 depths; ship, CTD; satellite (AVHRR)
[Nutrients] f: daily vertical profiles
ar: 10 sites; monthly aerial distribution 		high fair
good		 moored instruments, 3-5 depths; ship, bottle samples
[Chlorphyll-a] f: daily vertical profiles
ar: 10 sites; monthly aerial distribution		 high fair
good		 moored instruments, 3-5 depths; satellite (SeaWiFS); ship, bottle samples
(1) Given basin geomorphology, these are the minimum. For example, satellite altimeter data (e.g., Topex) could be used to estimate surface currents. Submodels include circulation, vertical exchange, phytoplankton production, benthic-pelagic coupling and oxygen demand.
7.2.7.5 Relationship to other programmes
A EuroGOOS-MedGOOS pilot project has been funded by the EC as the first step in the full scale design and implementation of "The Mediterranean Forecasting System" (MFS). The broad goal of the MFS is to explore, model and quantify the potential predictability of the ecosystem fluctuations at the level of primary producers from the overall basin scale to the coastal-shelf areas on time scales of weeks- months through the development and implementation of an automated monitoring-nowcasting-forecasting observation system with a modeling component that connects measurements (monitoring) to products (e.g., predictions, visualizations). The achievement of this ambitious goal will depend on the design and implementation of a hierarchy of nested observation systems from the scale of the Mediterranean (MFS) to the local and regional scale of continental shelves and seas. The Coordinated Adriatic Observing System satisfies the need for higher resolution local-regional scale components of the MFS.
The Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone Programme (LOICZ) of IGBP was established to determine at regional to global scales (1) the fluxes of material between land, sea and atmosphere through the coastal zone, the capacity of coastal systems to transfer and store particulate and dissolved matter, and the effects of changes in external forcing conditions on the structure and function of coastal ecosystems; (2) how changes in land use, climate, sea level, and human activities alter the fluxes and retention of particulate matter in the coastal zone; (3) how changes in coastal systems, including responses to varying terrestrial and oceanic inputs of organic matter and nutrients, affect the global carbon cycle and trace gas composition of the atmosphere; and (4) how responses of coastal systems to global change will affect the habitation and usage by humans of coastal environments. ELOISE (European Land-Ocean Interaction Studies), the European contribution to LOICZ, consists of 29 research projects organized into three working groups: biogeochemical fluxes and cycling, ecosystem structures, and modeling and data management.
The Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC) Programme, established by SCOR and the IOC in 1991, addresses the need to "understand how changes in the global environment will affect the abundance, diversity and production of animal populations comprising a major component of the ocean's ecosystems." The GLOBEC science plan emphasizes the need for basic research to quantify the dynamics of zooplankton populations in general and importance of predator-prey interactions (phytoplankton-zooplankton-fish) and physical forcings in particular. These goals are to be achieved by (1) building a foundation for global ecosystem models through re-examination of historical data bases, synthesis and integration; (2) conducting process studies; (3) developing predictive modeling capabilities through interdisciplinary, interactive modeling and observations; and (4) cooperating with other ocean, atmosphere, terrestrial and social global change efforts to assess feedback effects of larger scale changes in the structure of the biosphere.
LOICZ, GLOBEC, and CAOS clearly have elements that are relevant to each other. The quantification of fluxes of nutrients and water from coastal drainage basins to estuaries and the coastal ocean and of nutrient budgets for coastal ecosystems are major goals of LOICZ. GLOBEC emphasizes the roles of physical processes and zooplankton in the trophic dynamics of food webs that support marine fisheries. Major goals of CAOS include quantifying nutrient fluxes from land to water and the effects of anthropogenic nutrient enrichment and buoyancy flux on water quality and fisheries. Clearly, coordination with the MFS, LOICZ and GLOBEC must be a high priority of CAOS. Coordination will include the design and implementation of research projects and the exchange of data and information to achieve the related objectives of both programmes.

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7.2.8 CARICOMP (Ogden)
The Caribbean Coastal Marine Productivity Programme (CARICOMP) is a regional network of laboratories, parks and reserves formed to study land-sea interaction processes, to provide educational opportunities for Caribbean marine scientists and resource managers, and to integrate appropriate scientific information into management. The programme focusses on understanding the productivity, structure, and function of the three main coastal ecosystems in the Caribbean: mangroves, seagrasses and coral reefs.
CARICOMP grew out of the Association of Island Marine Laboratories, whose interaction was stimulated some years ago by the almost complete Caribbean-wide extinction of the sea urchin Diadema. In 1985, under the umbrella of UNESCO's Coastal Marine (COMAR) programme, CARICOMP was formed to coordinate and conduct monitoring and allied research. UNESCO's COMAR programme has now evolved into the UNESCO Project on Environment and Development in Coastal Regions and Small Island States (CSI), which has more of a social sciences remit but which still provides a UNESCO umbrella for CARICOMP, including support for workshops and meetings. Funding for the programme is provided by the MacArthur Foundation. Although the scope of its activities is much broader, CARICOMP is one of the nodes of the GCRMN (see 5.3). CARICOMP has facilitated cooperation on various studies of the coastal zone, developed a basic (Level 1) manual on coastal monitoring measurements to ensure a standard approach to data collection, supports capacity building, and maintains a data base at the University of the West Indies in Kingston, Jamaica. These data provide the basis for assessing long term trends, establishing base-line statistics on biodiversity, and detecting threshold responses of ecosystems to environmental changes.
The CARICOMP Steering Committee is exploring the possibility of becoming a C-GOOS programme. Does CARICOMP, an established and growing coastal network, qualify as a C-GOOS pilot project? The CARICOMP model is attractive and may have wider application, especially if it is adopted by C-GOOS. In addition, CARICOMP should seek an association with IOCARIBE, the IOC regional group responsible for Caribbean marine science and technology. CARICOMP could ask that this matter be raised at the IOCARIBE meeting proposed for early 1999. It would also be useful for CARICOMP to be involved in planning for the Caribbean GOOS workshop being planned for early 1999 by the GPO and IOCARIBE.
7.2.9 Seagrass Network (SEAGNET) (Koch)
Seagrasses occur along the coastlines of all continents except in polar regions and are considered to be one of the planet's most productive plant systems. It is currently estimated that the seagrass standing crop stores about 4% of the total carbon. They stabilise sediments and act as habitat for many economically important species. In recent years seagrass beds have been declining due largely to coastal development and eutrophication. They may also be sensitive to small increases in sea level which would reduce the availability of light. Because seagrass beds are not monitored it is not possible to quantify the rates and extents of loss.
Recognizing the need for global observations, SEAGNET was established in April 1998 at the 3rd International Seagrass Biology Workshop in Manila, Philippines (151 seagrass scientist from 28 nations). The SEAGNET mission is to (i) develop an effective observation system to provide coastal managers with reliable information on seagrass ecosystems worldwide; (ii) promote the comparative analysis and synthesis of data across SEAGNET sites; (iii) to enhance training and education in comparative methodologies and technologies, especially in developing countries; (iv) facilitate the interaction among participating researchers across disciplines and sites; (v) develop models able to predict the effect of global changes on seagrasses; (vi) disseminate information about the importance and need for preservation of seagrasses.
To achieve these goals, SEAGNET has identified the following priorities: (i) revise the 1990 UNESCO publication on "Seagrass Research Methods" to include an updated description of standard methods for monitoring seagrass beds and reporting results; (ii) create a global coordination mechanism, supported by regional offices and individual institutions; and (iii) establish monitoring sites and a data management programme, train observers, and disseminate information and products.
As a C-GOOS pilot project, SEAGNET will (i) document the current distribution and abundance of sea grasses and establish the seagrass observing system to quantify changes; (ii) determine the role of seagrasses in the global carbon cycle; (iii) evaluate the relationships between nutrient enrichment, sea- level rise, and changes in seagrass distribution; and (iv) develop models to predict global changes in the distribution of seagrass. Products will include GIS maps showing seagrass distribution, abundance and biomass and how these properties change over time in relation to changing environmental conditions such as sea-level and water clarity.
The advantages to SEAGNET of an association with C-GOOS would be to obtain appropriate guidance from C-GOOS experts on the design, implementation and funding of an observing system for this important ecosystem. The advantages to C-GOOS of an association with SEAGNET would be to ensure inclusion within C-GOOS of the main international body concerned with a major global coastal ecosystem. This would be consistent with the adoption of the GCRMN by GOOS and C-GOOS in the case of coral reefs.

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7.2.10 Southwest Atlantic Pilot Project (Marone)
At the suggestion of Tom Malone, Eduardo Marone introduced the idea of developing a C-GOOS Pilot Project , the Regional Network on Natural Hazards Warning System, the development of which had been discussed in Curitiba on October 26-28th 1998 (see section 4 and Annex VII). The next steps will determine how such a regional observing system would interface and coordinate with several other related projects, programmes and activities. These include El Ni¤o forecasting groups, GLOSS and its network of sea-level stations, meteorological services and stations, the IOC-EU capacity building programme, the IOC-HAB network for South America (FANSA) and relevant UNEP Regional Seas programmes (Annex X).
In discussion, it was recognized that since the network is at a very early stage in its development, some time will be required before it has sufficient shape to be considered as a C-GOOS pilot project. As Eduardo Marone put it, we are really at the stage of looking at the pilot for a pilot project.
The organizers of the programme will try to develop the project along C-GOOS lines, and will report on their progress at C-GOOS-III. To take the programme forward, they plan to hold a regional meeting, possibly in Cartagena, Colombia, in September 1999, or following the LOICZ Open Science meeting that will be held in Bahia Blanca, Argentina, in November 1999.
7.2.11 Radar Ocean Sensing (Guddal)
An important future role of C-GOOS will be to provide advice on the most appropriate operational tools for coastal monitoring. Radar Ocean Sensing (Rose) is a likely candidate. ROSE uses coastally based HF radar to determine sea conditions (wind, waves, tides, surges, currents) as the basis for coastal forecasts for shipping interests and other users. The system consists of radars that cover areas from 2- 40km offshore and high resolution numerical models which assimilate the data and simulate and forecast wave spectra and currents. EuroROSE is a European proposal to develop ROSE as a tool for use by Vessel Traffic Services operators, harbour authorities, and coastal managers to monitor and predict significant weather and ocean conditions with high time-space resolution in selected regions where marine operations are especially active or sensitive. EuroROSE started in October and will run for three years. This an exciting technology offering considerable potential for coastal monitoring and modeling. In this connection it might prove useful for C-GOOS to develop a link to the CMM's ROSE subgroup.
7.2.12 Vietnam Coastal Disaster Warning System (Guddal)
Typhoons regularly cross Vietnam, damaging property and infrastructure and killing people. The Norwegian Government has been advising Vietnam on the development of a 'Strategy and Action Plan for Mitigating Water Disasters in Vietnam'. Its goals are to (i) to establish procedures for end-to-end data- to-product management, (ii) establish professional reporting and auditing procedures, (iii) establish professional Quality Assurance procedures for the whole production line from data to product, (iv) build long-term planning capabilities, (v) provide training in all aspects of the production line, (vi) establish preparedness procedures for typhoon incidents, (vii) update and enhance international cooperation with CMM and GOOS, (viii) select and apply a numerical storm surge model assimilating typhoon data. Clearly, this project has many of the attributes of a C-GOOS type of project, and the C-GOOS Panel may wish to incorporate lessons learned into the design and implementation plans of C-GOOS.
In Vietnam there is a good basis for the design of an observing network for forecasting storm surges associated with typhoons. There is a database containing basic statistics on sea-level under storm and non-storm conditions, and there is a network of offshore buoys equipped with meteorological and oceanographic sensors. However, the infrastructure and models required to process the data and make marine forecasts do not exist, and, while the sea-level data are archived, most of the buoy data seem to be lost. The buoys also suffer from interference by fishermen and have to be protected by the navy. The problem of buoys being vandalised, damaged, set adrift or stolen by fishermen is common, and has given many headaches for instance to the TAO Implementation Panel. To help protect TAO buoys an information leaflet explaining in several languages the benefits that the buoys bring to them has been widely distributed to fishermen in the equatorial Pacific. C-GOOS needs to follow this model.
Johannes Guddal suggested that it might be worthwhile inviting the Vietnamese to attend a future C-GOOS meeting to discuss the processes C-GOOS might use, and the possible difficulties that might be encountered, in setting up C-GOOS projects in other developing countries. This would provide another useful opportunity for C-GOOS to interact with the user community. C-GOOS might also wish to consider adopting this working project as a useful demonstration project to encourage other countries along a similar path. He offered to cover the costs of the attendance of Vietnamese representatives at such a meeting.
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