ANNEX XVI
REGIONAL BLUEPRINT AND PILOT PROJECT FOR THE BLACK SEA
INTRODUCTION
This document describes a pilot study design for the implementation of the Health of the Oceans (HOTO) Module of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) for the Black Sea. The pilot study defines the key variables and parameters to be measured on a permanent basis with regard to the sustainable development of marine resources and prevention of adverse effects of anthropogenic activities on the environment, including marine environmental and human health issues.
The Black Sea, an almost enclosed marginal sea faced with severe environmental problems, may be considered as one of the best application areas for a HOTO Pilot Project in the world oceans. In a recent study by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) that examined the health of 12 marine areas (Caribbean, North Sea, West African coast, Baltic Sea, northern former Soviet Union (FSU), Mediterranean, Red Sea, the Gulf, Asian Seas, Black Sea, Oligotrophic Gyre, and the Great Lakes) with respect to various contaminants, it received the poorest marks. In terms of marine pollution, the Black Sea thus deserves increased vigilance and effective environmental management.
The environmental crisis in the Black Sea results from severe eutrophication due to excessive anthropogenic forcing. When accompanied by natural variability and climatic changes, as well as excessive and selective fishing, it is manifested by dramatic changes in its ecosystem and resources. Heavy metals, pesticides, and hydrocarbons originating mostly from land-based activities (notably from the Danube in alarmingly high amounts per annum: Total Inorganic Nitrogen 23,000 tons, Total Phosphorus 35,000 tons, Oil 53,300 tons) have led to chemical and microbial pollution, affecting public health and the tourism industry. Harmful algal blooms are frequently observed in coastal areas. Considerable changes in the species composition and phytoplankton biomass and bloom structures have taken place. The fishery yields have declined dramatically, with an 80% reduction in total catch in the last few years. Moreover, only 6 out of the 26 commercially valuable fish species remain in exploitable quantities. Frequent hypoxia and occasional anoxia have resulted from eutrophication and have led to a nearly complete decline of benthos over broad regions of the northwestern shelf. On the Romanian coast alone, a single event of anoxia in 1991 eliminated an estimated 50% of the remaining benthic fish. Decreased light penetration has led to a 95% loss in the harvest area of the commercially valuable shallow water algae Phyllophora. Irretrievable losses of some significant deltaic wetlands and their habitats have taken place. In addition to dramatic effects of antropogenic forcing, the basin's food web has also been affected significantly by the population growth and spread of predators, especially the ctenophore "Mnemiopsis leidyi", as well as excessive and selective fishing throughout the basin during the late 1980's.
As stated in the "Strategic Plan for the Assessment and Prediction of the Health of the Ocean", the ultimate benefit which might be expected from a Black Sea HOTO Pilot Project is to develop strategies for maximizing the economic benefits derived from the efficient use of marine resources, and to assist national decision makers in efforts to ensure the sustained protection of marine health and its exposure to human health. In the following, a brief description of the major research and management programmes carried out to date, which might provide a basis for HOTO-related future studies, is provided initially. A programme of priority measurements and observations planned to be performed within the framework of Black Sea HOTO Pilot Project is then provided.
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EXISTING ENVIRONMENTAL/OCEANOGRAPHIC PROGRAMMES
Various research and management programmes have been developed during the 1990s by the riparian states and by international organizations to address the environmental and socioeconomic issues facing the Black Sea. Because they might form the basis for the Black Sea HOTO Pilot Project design, the objectives and accomplishments of the major programmes and projects are outlined briefly.
A major government-level initiative undertaken by the Black Sea countries was the creation of the Black Sea Environmental Programme (BSEP) in 1993. This was mainly funded by the Global Environmental Facility (GEF), with additional funds from the European Union's (EU's) PHARE and Technical Assistance to the Commonwealth of Independent States (TACIS) Programmes. The primary objective of the BSEP has been to develop and implement policy and a legal framework for the assessment, control, and prevention of pollution and to maintain and enhance biodiversity, as well as to create and strengthen regional capabilities for managing the Black Sea ecosystem.
The major achievement of the BSEP was the preparation of the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis, which formed the basis of the Black Sea Strategic Action Plan (BS-SAP), developed during 1996. The BS-SAP identified the major causes of environmental degradation in the Black Sea: (1) eutrophication and over-exploitation of marine natural resources, (2) poor coastal management, (3) inadequate sewage collection systems and sewage treatment facilities, (4) industrial hot spots, and (5) lack of port reception facilities. By signing the BS-SAP on 31 October 1996, the six Black Sea coastal countries, with the help of the international community, committed themselves to a pragmatic programme of actions based upon common objectives and milestones for restoring the Black Sea from environment degradation.
The Environmental Programme for the Danube River Basin is another effort, established in 1991 by 11 major Danube countries. It is supported by the EU and GEF as well as some international donors. The programme covers water quality monitoring, marine accident warning systems, data collection and assessment, strengthening the environmental management of the catchment area, and preparation of a "Danube River Basin Strategic Action Plan" for 1995-2005 to provide a comprehensive, forward-looking strategy for regional and transboundary actions to address the main environmental problems and priorities in the basin.
The Danube Delta Project complements other GEF-supported programmes that address the Danube River Basin and the Black Sea Environmental Programme; all have the common objective of demonstrating the value of a coordinated approach to resolving water pollution and biodiversity problems with transborder linkages. This project has two parallel tracks: one for the Romanian and one for the Ukrainian Delta ecosystems.
The Cooperative Marine Science Programme for the Black Sea (CoMSBlack) launched in 1991 was the first, truly multi-institutional scientific effort to establish a scientific basis for the effective and integrated management of the Black Sea, including environmental preservation, protection and optimum utilization. The main funding for this programme came from each participating nation's programme, together with some financial contribution from the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC). Within the framework of CoMSBlack, a series of basin, sub-basin and regional-scale multiship oceanographic surveys were carried out between 1991 and 1993. The data collected during these surveys were instrumental in developing a new understanding and perception of the physical and biogeochemical characteristics of the Black Sea.
The NATO TU-Black Sea Project is the first highly significant NATO endeavor to establish scientific collaboration with the central and eastern European countries. This multi-institutional project is a 5-year activity that will continue until the end of 1997. The purpose is to improve the health of the Black Sea through using ecosystem models as a management tool, capacity building, and fostering an interactive scientific community for the Black Sea. Under this programme, various interdisciplinary ecosystem models have been developed for different regions of the Black Sea to analyze the effects of physical processes, changes in anthropogenic forcing, and natural variability on the dynamics of the lower trophic levels of the biological community. The capacity-building component focuses on providing cross-training; making scientific equipment interoperable; carrying out intensive and extensive joint observations; monitoring through satellite imagery, collaborative analysis, and synthesis of past and recent data; producing joint publications; and developing a communication network. A data base management system (DBMS) has been established by including the last 30 years of environmental and oceanographic data pertinent to the goals of the programme. It is expected to serve as a continuously updated baseline for future activities concerned with the sustainable use and protection of the Black Sea environment and management purposes.
The EROS 2000 (European River-Ocean System) Programme of the European Union focuses on the interaction between the Danube River and the northwestern Black Sea. As a 3-year project started in 1994, its major objective is the development of an integrated approach (on the basis of existing data, field work and numerical modeling) to address the coastal ecosystems' response to natural and man-made changes in land use and hydraulic management, and the problems of eutrophication, contaminants and particle transfer, sedimentation, and biogas production.
The IOC Assembly established a Black Sea Regional Programme in 1995 to promote, develop, and coordinate the programmes on regional joint marine sciences and services at an intergovernmental level, taking into account the existing programmes carried out by international institutions and organizations. One of the IOC's two pilot projects, a Step Towards Observation and Prediction Systems (STOPS), is designed to develop and improve regional capabilities on operational oceanography, including observational, predictive, and management-oriented multidisciplinary applications. The other pilot project assesses the sediment flux in the Black Sea, gauges its space-time variability and identifies key processes of transformation and sedimentation in order to analyze their influence on the Black Sea ecosystem.
The littoral states of the Black Sea have identified radioactive pollution as a priority, based on public concern related to the Chernobyl accident and risks associated with local nuclear facilities and possible waste storage problems. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) conducted a coordinated research programme between 1994 and 1996 on "The Application of Tracer Techniques in the Study of Processes and Pollution in the Black Sea." The major objectives of this programme were to assess the inventory of radionuclides in the Black Sea; to evaluate future trends in radioactive pollution; and to apply Tracer methods in studies of oceanographic process and pollutant transport.
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PILOT PROJECT DESIGN
Continuous Monitoring Programme
The sustainable development of coastal and marine resources in the Black Sea requires implementation of a systematic monitoring programme, which provides the information to ensure the maintenance of biodiversity and integrity of marine communities, minimize the loss of species, limit human influences on living marine resources, protect critical habitats, and safeguard human health. The HOTO Pilot Project would consider two broad catagories of monitoring for these purposes: (i) biogeochemical-ecological measurements for understanding of the present status and future trends in the health of the Black Sea, and (ii) measurements concerned with human health hazards.
- Biogeochemical-Ecosystem measurements:
The changes in the biogeochemical structure and ecosystem characteristics of the Black Sea due to anthropogenic nutrient input and contamination can be assessed and controlled by monitoring the parameters for: (i) ecosystem processes (i.e. productivity, nutrient fluxes, plankton biomass and species composition, etc.); (ii) biodiversity and habitat loss and degradation; (iii) endangered and threatened species; and (iv) changes in community structure.
- Human Health Measurements:
Public health can be threatened by contaminants either through seafood consumption and/or direct contact with the contaminants. The contaminant groups which might be hazardous for human health are classified as: (i) industrial organics, trace metals, agricultural chemicals and pharmaceuticals; (ii) naturally occurring toxins in marine organisms; (iii) alien pathogens entering into the marine environment through sewage, industry, etc.; and (iv) native pathogens present in the marine environment. The threshold levels of these variables must be monitored continuously in order to avoid increasing risk from their adverse effects.
The Strategic Action Plan for HOTO identifies a general framework of measurements which consists of Synthetic Organic Compounds, Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs), Trace Metals, Petroleum Hydrocarbons (Oil),Herbicides/Pesticides, Dissolved Oxygen, Artificial Radionuclides, Pharmaceuticals, Phytoplankton Pigments and Community Structure, Human Pathogens, Nutrients, Algal Toxins, Litter and Plastic Materials, Suspended Particulate Matter, Temperature, Salinity and Currents. Clearly, continuous monitoring of all of these variables may not always be possible due to technical limitations and difficulties of measurements. Furthermore, regional environmental characteristics might dictate different preferences and priorities. Nevertheless, the following general guideline may be given for priorities of the measurements in the Black Sea coastal waters.
| HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW |
|---|---|---|
| Algal Toxins | Artificial Radionuclides | Pharmaceuticals |
| Herbicides/Pesticides | Litter/Plastics Human | Pathogens |
| Phytoplancton Pigments & Community Structure |
Synthetic Organics | |
| Nutrients | PAHs | |
| Dissolved Oxygen | Trace Metals | |
| Petroleum | Suspended Particulates | |
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Sampling and monitoring in hot spots at coastal and near-shore waters around the periphery of the basin should be made as frequent as possible; preferably at weekly time scales. These hot spots are the locations where there are riverine inputs, harbors and marinas, industrial sewage, fish farms and other aquaculture facilities. Further offshore, at open sea waters, these kinds of sampling and monitoring may be performed at monthly-seasonal time scales.
Most of the HOTO-related sampling and measurements must be coordinated with other potential national-international programmes as well as those planned within the framework of other GOOS Modules. Accordingly, various additional measurements might be carried out using (a) small vessels for weekly-to-monthly measurements across selected transects from coastal areas to shelf and continental slopes, (b) shore-based continuous monitoring stations, (c) ships of opportunity measurements, (d) moorings and drifters, and (e) satellite color imagers.
The ultimate sampling system should be designed as cost-effective and affordable by all the riparian countries of the Black Sea. It should further ensure a realization of a comprehensive set of measurements which satisfy the management demand issues and sustainable use of the Black Sea resources. The proposed list of measurements and sampling strategy might be subject to future revisions from a logistical perspective and degree of information provided.
The monitoring programme must be complemented by a data management system to provide a complete, efficient and internationally accessible data base. The oceanographic institutions around the Black Sea have long-standing experience with data handling procedures. Presently, two data bases exist for the Black Sea. The first one is the "Black Sea Geographic Information System" developed under the BSEP, consisting of 550 basin-wide maps arranged in seven thematic blocks, representing different aspects of the Black Sea ecosystem. It has been created from a wide range of national and international data sources. The other is the "NATO TU-Black Sea Data Base". It includes nearly 150 MB physical and biogeochemical data obtained from 26,537 oceanographic stations during the last 25 to 30 years. This data base might form a basis for the future Black Sea HOTO Pilot Project.
MODELING PROGRAMME
The efforts on the monitoring programme is complemented by some modeling efforts which might provide either understanding the details of the processes and interactions taking place in the ecosystem or some forecasting capability for predicting future evolution of some particular events. Some important modeling issues relevant to HOTO objectives, which might be realized with present modeling capabilities, are: (a) development of a simple early warning system for intensive eutrophication conditions in the coastal waters, such as prediction of harmful algal blooms, (b) water quality modeling, (c) prediction of dispersions of passive tracers such as spreading of oil spills and other accidental releases of hazardous material, (d) transport of radioactive tracers and sediment load, and (e) modeling possible impacts of environmental changes on pelagic fish recruitment.