USER SCENARIOS

Scenario 1.  Local coastline water level variations, seasonally, annually, and in storms. 

To improve its local flood defences, a coastal zone management group needs to know how water levels may vary along a particular stretch of coast, especially in storms, both seasonally and from year to year.  Much the same information will be required by the local managers of ports and harbors, not only for flood defence but also for predicting and controlling access to loading and unloading.  Water levels may vary because of tides, changes in sea level caused by climate change, surges caused by storms, or changes in wave height, for instance, all of which may be independent, but which may be combined, and all of which can be monitored, modelled, and predicted.

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Scenario 2.  Monitoring and predicting ocean circulation and its control of the heat flux, in order to find its correlation with the duration of long and cold winters.

To plan national or regional energy supplies efficiently and effectively for the long term, major power suppliers and the energy companies or agencies who supply them need predictions of how long and cold winter conditions are likely to be year to year for a decade or more ahead.  Much the same informaiton, including the length and temperature of the growing season, is required by the agriculture sector.  Monitoring and predicting ocean circulation and its control on the heat flux is central to obtaining the required forecasts.  In the North Atlantic, for instance, this would require improved definition and prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

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Scenario 3.  Monitoring and predicting ocean circulation and its impact on rainfall variability on the climatological time scale (El Nino Effect). 

To plan the infrastructure for national or regional water supplies efficiently and effectively for the long term, major water suppliers need predictions of rainfall year by year for a decade or more.  Improved forecasts of reainfall, and hence water supply, based on ocean and atmospheric measurements and models, will benefit inducsty, help farmers determine what and whne to plant, and enable public health problems to be anticipated.

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Scenario 4.  Introduction of ocean parameter to improve ship routing and efficiency of vessel operations.

The growth in ocean trade, the increasing automation of ships, and the development of super-giant bulk and oil carriers demands much improved planning of ocean routes to take advantage of knowledge of the changing positions and strengths of ocean currents and the eddies and storm tracks with which they are associated.  This requires greatly improved weather warnings and forecasts and ocean nowcasts along with imporved short-term ocean forecasts of ocean conditions and climate. 

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Scenario 5.  Introduction of ocean parameters to improve operation performance of offshore operations (in particular in deep water and in Arctic waters).

Increasing development of oil and gas fields in deep water far offshore and in hostil Arctic conditions demands increasingly accurate forecasts of ocean and climate conditions so as to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of operations.  Increasingly production will take place for well-heads at or under the seabed, but estimates of maximum wave height will still be required where production takes place from platforms, and ice forecasts for the longer term will be essential in polar regions.  Needed measurements include, among others,  wave height, ice dynamics, and current strength and direction.

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Scenario 6.  Improved El Nino forecasting around the Pacific basin and further afield.

Farmers, fishermen and coastal zone mangers need improved forecasts of the large interannual perturbations forced by the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which controls cyclical droughts, floods and ocean upwelling events around the Pacific basin and further afield.  Continuation of ocean monitoring from the TAO array in the equatorial Pacific ocean, backed by satellite observation of sea surface temperature and ocean modeling is regarded as essential if skill in ENSO forecasting is to be maintained and improved.  Similar thermal oscillations in the tropical Atlantic but on longer time-scales appear to be related to the droughts that cause widespread devastation to the peoples of the Sahel in sub-Saharan Africaa, callin for development of a similar monitoring and prediction system.

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Scenario 7.  Medium to long range forecasts of the seasonal to interannual variability in the monsoon system.

Managers of many different kinds around the northern Indian Ocean require improved medium to long-range forecasts of the seasonal and interannual variability in the monsoon system, which can wreak havoc on coastal zones and agriculture alike, as well as being associated with massive flooding in places like Bangladesh.  Measurements are needed to support an appropriate forecasting system.

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Scenario 8.  Impact on coastal circulation systems from changes in the open ocean circulation.

Port managers need information about circulation in support of safe navigation and envirnomental protection in harbours and their surrounding or approach areas.  Coastal circulation is partly forced by the circulation in the outside open ocean basin, partly by tidal effects, local topography and hydrographic conditions.  Pollution emergency response systems similarly depend on a good knowledge of local circulation, and their design should be based on climatological informaiton on the variability of this circulation. 

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